GECKO

Strategies · on Gecko’s tip list

Volume SurgeTechnicalSwing

EVS Drift · 5× normal volume, up 3%+ · hold 20 days

refine · drop · retestGeckobornStrategydevelopmentBacktestingForwardtestingTipgenerationwe are herePapertradingLivetrading

Today: Tip generation. Gecko raises tips from this strategy and tests them on a paper (pretend-money) account. Strategies loop back from paper trading to be refined, dropped or replaced - only those that pass every check reach live trading.

Buys after a share trades at least five times its usual volume on a rising day, and holds for four weeks.

The idea

An exceptional burst of trading on an up day usually means news that big investors are acting on. The price tends to keep drifting in the same direction for weeks as the rest of the market catches up.

Which shares

Gecko’s original 115 stocks.

When it buys

  1. A share trades at least 5 times its average volume of the last 50 days.
  2. It closes at least 3% higher on the day.
  3. Buy at the next morning’s open.

When it sells

  1. Sell at the close 20 trading days later.
  2. Protective stop: 2.5 times the share’s average daily range below the signal day.

How often it tips

11%of trading days bring a tip
0.6tips a week on average - at least one in 40% of weeks
2.4tips a month on average
41tips in the backtest’s last 12 months

Counted from the backtest’s trades, 2016-2026, on the shares above. A few more tips arrive than trades: a signal on a share already held is still sent, marked as skipped.

Results so far

£1.55won for every £1 lost
298trades, 2016-2026
46%of trades won
+0.24Raverage per trade, in units of the amount risked

Backtest #289 - CFDs on a £10,000 account risking 2% a trade, with commission and financing, before bid-ask spreads.

Forward testing
Rules frozen 2 October 2026 - forward tracking counts every signal since.
Paper trading
Paper orders are placed on a click. No closed paper trades yet.
Live trading
Not live.

Worth knowing

  • On 143 stocks it wasn’t developed on, it made nothing - its edge may be partly luck in the original stock list.
  • It overlaps with Big Up Day, which trades similar events better.

Read more