GECKO

Strategies · on Gecko’s tip list

Spike LowTechnicalSwing

A panic low on 1.5× volume after a fall · hold 20 days

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Today: Tip generation. Gecko raises tips from this strategy and tests them on a paper (pretend-money) account. Strategies loop back from paper trading to be refined, dropped or replaced - only those that pass every check reach live trading.

Buys after a falling share has a sharp, heavily traded dip that is bought back the same day - panic selling being absorbed.

The idea

From Jack Schwager’s chart patterns: after a fall, a day whose low pokes well below the days around it, on heavy trading, but which closes near its high, often marks sellers running out. It buys the opposite of most of Gecko’s strategies - fear rather than good news - so it adds variety to the tip list.

Which shares

Gecko’s original 115 stocks. It also held up, more weakly, on the FTSE 350 stocks it wasn’t developed on.

When it buys

  1. The share has fallen at least 8% over the previous 20 days.
  2. A day’s low is at least 2% below the lows of the days either side, on at least 1.5 times normal volume.
  3. That day closes in the top third of its range.
  4. Buy at the next morning’s open.

When it sells

  1. Sell at the close 20 trading days later.
  2. Protective stop: just below the spike’s low.

How often it tips

9%of trading days bring a tip
0.6tips a week on average - at least one in 35% of weeks
2.5tips a month on average
30tips in the backtest’s last 12 months

Counted from the backtest’s trades, 2016-2026, on the shares above. A few more tips arrive than trades: a signal on a share already held is still sent, marked as skipped.

Results so far

£1.72won for every £1 lost
305trades, 2016-2026
46%of trades won
+0.34Raverage per trade, in units of the amount risked

Backtest #382 - CFDs on a £10,000 account risking 2% a trade, with commission and financing, before bid-ask spreads.

Forward testing
Rules frozen 5 October 2026 - forward tracking counts every signal since.
Paper trading
Paper orders are placed on a click. No closed paper trades yet.
Live trading
Not live.

Worth knowing

  • The 1.5× volume setting was picked from a sweep over the full period, so the result is somewhat optimistic.

Read more

A write-up is coming. Meanwhile, see all findings →